My 2014 Oscar Picks

My Oscar Picks

Ths is my first time doing this in a blog post, but I usually have a wonderful time figuring out who might win and who won’t, and I’ve made some pretty accurate predictions over the years. Let’s see if I’m correct this time around, with a timestamp. I can only talk about certain categories, since I haven’t seen all the films.

BEST ACTOR – Matthew McConaughey & Chiwetel tossup

Rationale: Industry wise, best actor usually goes to whomever wins the SAG (Screen Actors Guild) award for best actor. It is usually a reliable predictor of who will win the oscar which makes Matthew pretty close. I think in terms of raw range and the demands of production, I’d say Chiwetel Ejiofor should take it, and winning best actor at the BAFTAs is no slouch either. After watching Dallas Buyers Club I said “McConaughey has it” because actors in movies related to a cause think Philadelphia, Milk, etc tend to win. But 12 Years A Slave is a riveting testament to acting.  Plus I’m torn because Chiwetel is one of my favourite actors. He consistently brings a raw intelligence to most of his roles, which makes me favorably lean towards him. So industry logistics tell me McConaughey, gut says Chiwetel.

BEST  SUPPORTING ACTOR: Definitely Jared Leto. I loved the raging intensity of Barkhad Abdi’s performance in Captain Phillips, but he to me is a “dark horse” in this category. Leto is touching on a lot of current issues right now, including transgender relations and I think he’s the one to beat.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:  I can see why there was so much fuss around Jennifer Lawrence’s character in American Hustle, because it is very hard to pull of a believably neurotic, irresponsible housewife. But in 12 years a salve Lupita Nyong’o had to pull out some incredible stops for the film. J.Law is Hollywood’s current sweetheart and she might get an oscar two years in a row for this “street cred” but Nyong’o had more exactly challenges I feel in her film, so I’m leaning towards her.

BEST PICTURE: I feel American Hustle will take it because it is a very “American” movie. Swooping cinematography, tough suburban characters from Jersey with a delicate blend of the FBI and the Mafia do it for me. I thought Captain Phillips was a great film but it had more  to do with the actors than the well paced cinematography of American Hustle. There is a vibe I feel in that movie where both the sets and the characters come to life within various scenes. Plus the music was awesome. It will be hard to beat. The only way I can be wrong about this is if Wolf Of Wall Street wins, which I didn’t see and have no opinion on.

BEST ACTRESS: (musing) I haven’t seen Blue Jasmine, but I’ll toss this at Kate Blanchett since she won the SAG award which again is usually a solid predictor of who will take it. I did see Gravity and thought Sandra Bullock was SOLID in that role. She could slip through the cracks since roles that demand a lot of alone time are held in very high regard, but we’ll see. I also love Judi Dench, but didn’t see her film.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: Definitely Gravity should take this. It was a powerhouse visual effects movie and I don’t think there is any contest for it in this years Oscars.

BEST DIRECTOR: Thinking out loud, quite possibly Gravity can take this as well. Industry buzz said Alfonso Cuaron was favored quite positively by the Oscar committees. But with all the hubbub around Steve McQueen’s 12 Years a Slave and also American Hustle I can’t tell exactly. Maybe this is the year that Scorcese nabs his oscar. To me American Hustle is quite vivid in terms of cinematography, set pieces and a large scale. Gravity has the challenges of the space environment and balancing realism. I’m a big Cuaron fan, but American Hustle might sweep it.

BEST EDITING: Close tie between Gravity and Captain Phillips. I’d say since Captain Phillips was shot in real time versus special effects, I’ll give it the edge because it really was a “on the edge of your seat” kind of film.

BEST SCRIPT: Again, I didn’t see all the films, but seeing American Hustle in there makes me think it might grab it. The film had several highly believable multilayered characters who used a lot of dialogue to present themselves, so I think that will take it.

that’s it for my musings this year. Let’s see how close I was.

cheers